The Tenfold Monthly

Hello,

Although it might have felt like it at times, hiring in 2025 didn’t grind to a complete halt. It just became much more selective. Fewer roles moved, but the ones that did were tightly defined, time-sensitive, and tied to urgent execution needs.

Across the year, hiring followed deployment pressure. When capital needed to move—quickly and correctly—teams added capability. What stayed active? Roles where the mandate was clear, the skill set was specific, and the hire could have a near-term impact.

We consistently saw activity concentrated in a handful of areas. Private credit teams leaned toward sector specialists and investors who could think beyond structure and into equity-like risk. Digital infrastructure roles remained active where commercial diligence and judgment mattered as much as speed. Infrastructure and energy services remained active: power demand isn’t going away, infrastructure is aging, and these assets are built to be held and worked over time.

As we move into February, hiring conversations are beginning to sound more growth-oriented. In recent weeks, we’ve spoken with a handful of platforms standing up new strategies within existing firms—often alongside associated fundraises and several planned hires. We’re also seeing established teams add talent in anticipation of future capital formation. Market uncertainty persists, but activity is emerging where urgency is real, and scope is defined.

After a pause and public pushback, junior buyside recruiting restarted last month with tighter criteria and clearer signals around what firms are prioritizing. At the same time, surveys point to growing confidence in a pickup in middle-market M&A in 2026—particularly among firms that spent the past year rebuilding pipelines rather than forcing deals.

New this year: Inside the Deal Team

Starting this edition, we’re introducing a new section in Tenfold Monthly—Inside the Deal Team.

We’ll share perspectives from senior investors operating inside lean, high-execution investment teams. These are real observations from the deal table on what actually differentiates performers as the market evolves and expectations shift.

As always, we appreciate your feedback as we refine Tenfold Monthly. If there’s a format you want more of, less of, or sharper, we’d value your input.

Below, you’ll find market moves, hiring signals, and capital shifts shaping the start of 2026.

Let’s dive in.

Q: Where does equity-first thinking break down?
Most equity-focused associates reach for the same levers first.

• Leverage

• Price

• Entry and exit multiples

That approach isn’t wrong. It’s just not sufficient when you’re investing across equity, preferred equity, and credit.

Q: Why does that approach fall short in flexible-capital platforms?
A large part of the outcome comes from structure. How risk is shared. When capital comes back. Where the downside sits.

Q: What do associates often miss early on?

• Shifting risk into earn-outs instead of pricing everything upfront

• Structuring waterfalls so capital is returned first, with upside negotiated later

• Using capital structure to shape risk-adjusted return, not just boost IRR

Q: What do most strong associates already have?
The basics are not the issue.

• Business evaluation

• Modeling

• IC memos

Those are expected.

Q: So what actually separates people?
How do we earn a larger return for the risk we’re actually taking? That mindset usually comes from reps. From seeing deals done differently. Not from pushing harder on the same levers.

Q: Why does this matter more now?
Lean teams don’t give you as much time to grow quietly. Associates present earlier. Own judgment earlier. Sit closer to the IC earlier. That’s the gap we see most often.

Community Poll

Hiring is now driven more by immediate needs than by planning cycles. As firms remain lean and disciplined, roles open only when a specific trigger requires action. We’re interested in what our community believes is most often driving hiring today.

January ‘26 Poll Results

We asked what sustained hiring activity in 2025. The consensus was that strong execution mattered more than speed. Respondents identified operational execution as the primary advantage, followed by clear and defined mandates. Underwriting depth and deployment speed were less significant, highlighting a shift toward focused scopes, disciplined processes, and prioritizing quality over quantity.

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We look forward to sharing more insights, opportunities, and success stories with you next month!

Take care,
The Tenfold Team